Automatic response forecasting for news media plays a crucial role in enabling content producers to efficiently predict the impact of news releases and prevent unexpected negative outcomes such as social conflict and moral injury. To effectively forecast responses, it is essential to develop measures that leverage the social dynamics and contextual information surrounding individuals, especially in cases where explicit profiles or historical actions of the users are limited (referred to as lurkers). As shown in a previous study, 97% of all tweets are produced by only the most active 25% of users. However, existing approaches have limited exploration of how to best process and utilize these important features. To address this gap, we propose a novel framework, named SocialSense, that leverages a large language model to induce a belief-centered graph on top of an existent social network, along with graph-based propagation to capture social dynamics. We hypothesize that the induced graph that bridges the gap between distant users who share similar beliefs allows the model to effectively capture the response patterns. Our method surpasses existing state-of-the-art in experimental evaluations for both zero-shot and supervised settings, demonstrating its effectiveness in response forecasting. Moreover, the analysis reveals the framework's capability to effectively handle unseen user and lurker scenarios, further highlighting its robustness and practical applicability.

Predicting how a user responds to news events enables important applications such as allowing intelligent agents or content producers to estimate the effect on different communities and revise unreleased messages to prevent unexpected bad outcomes such as social conflict and moral injury. We present a new task, Response Forecasting on Personas for News Media, to estimate the response a persona (characterizing an individual or a group) might have upon seeing a news message. Compared to the previous efforts which only predict generic comments to news, the proposed task not only introduces personalization in the modeling but also predicts the sentiment polarity and intensity of each response. This enables more accurate and comprehensive inference on the mental state of the persona. Meanwhile, the generated sentiment dimensions make the evaluation and application more reliable. We create the first benchmark dataset, which consists of 13,357 responses to 3,847 news headlines from Twitter. We further evaluate the SOTA neural language models with our dataset. The empirical results suggest that the included persona attributes are helpful for the performance of all response dimensions. Our analysis shows that the best-performing models are capable of predicting responses that are consistent with the personas, and as a byproduct, the task formulation also enables many interesting applications in the analysis of social network groups and their opinions, such as the discovery of extreme opinion groups.

There has been increased interest in missing sensor data imputation, which is ubiquitous in the field of structural health monitoring (SHM) due to discontinuous sensing caused by sensor malfunction. To address this fundamental issue, this paper presents an incremental Bayesian tensor learning method for reconstruction of spatiotemporal missing data in SHM and forecasting of structural response. In particular, a spatiotemporal tensor is first constructed followed by Bayesian tensor factorization that extracts latent features for missing data imputation. To enable structural response forecasting based on incomplete sensing data, the tensor decomposition is further integrated with vector autoregression in an incremental learning scheme. The performance of the proposed approach is validated on continuous field-sensing data (including strain and temperature records) of a concrete bridge, based on the assumption that strain time histories are highly correlated to temperature recordings. The results indicate that the proposed probabilistic tensor learning approach is accurate and robust even in the presence of large rates of random missing, structured missing and their combination. The effect of rank selection on the imputation and prediction performance is also investigated. The results show that a better estimation accuracy can be achieved with a higher rank for random missing whereas a lower rank for structured missing.